The Caribbean economy is projected to expand by an impressive 5.6% in 2026, but new data from the United Nations reveals that regional growth drops to just 1.1% when excluding the massive, oil-driven expansion of Guyana.
According to the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2026, released on Friday, August 21, 2026, by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), overall regional growth is set to accelerate further to 7.9% in 2027. However, stripping out Guyana lowers the 2027 forecast to 2.2%. The stark contrast highlights an expanding economic divide, as Guyana’s booming energy sector is projected to drive its domestic economy up by 16.2% in 2026 and 19.7% in 2027.
Behind Guyana, a second tier of Caribbean nations displays more moderate expansion. ECLAC projects that Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, and Suriname will share second place in 2026 with 3.5% growth each. They are followed by Dominica at 3.1%, St. Vincent and the Grenadines at 3.0%, and both Barbados and Belize at 2.5%. The Bahamas is forecast to grow by 2.0%. Elsewhere in the broader region, the Dominican Republic is expected to post solid growth of 4.0% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027, demonstrating resilience despite global economic slowdowns.
In sharp contrast, some of the region's established economies face significant slowdowns or contractions. Jamaica ranks at the bottom of ECLAC's 2026 forecast, with its economy expected to shrink by 1.2% before recovering to 2.5% growth in 2027. Meanwhile, Trinidad and Tobago is projected to post the second-weakest regional performance this year, expanding by just 0.8% in 2026 before rising modestly to 1.5% in 2027.
